What the numbers mean
Your win rate is winning trades divided by all trades. By itself it means little: 60% can be profitable at one payout and a loss at another.
What counts is the distance between your win rate and the break-even rate for the payout you trade. Look at 100 trades or more before deciding anything; over a few dozen, luck alone can shift the figure by ten points.
The maths
- Win rate = wins ÷ (wins + losses)
- Break-even win rate = 1 ÷ (1 + payout)
- Net result = wins × stake × payout − losses × stake
Worked example
60 wins and 40 losses at an 80% payout with a $10 stake give a 60% win rate against a break-even of 55.6%. The net result is +$80.00, or +$0.80 per trade. At a 65% payout the same trader would need 60.6% just to stay level.
Break-even win rate at each payout
| Payout | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|
| 70% | 58.8% |
| 75% | 57.1% |
| 80% | 55.6% |
| 82% | 54.9% |
| 85% | 54.1% |
| 88% | 53.2% |
| 90% | 52.6% |
| 92% | 52.1% |
| 95% | 51.3% |
Quick answers
What counts as a good win rate?
Anything above break-even for your payout: about 54.1% at 85%, 55.6% at 80% and 57.1% at 75%. Most retail traders don't stay above it for long.
Why do I lose money winning 52% of trades?
Because the payout is under 100%, so each win is smaller than each loss. At 85% you need about 54.1% just to break even.
How many trades show my true win rate?
At least 100, and more is better. Small samples swing a lot by chance.